2015-06-15
房市2017∼2018年落底
房地合一」實價課稅三讀通過後,面對未來房市發展,專家學者認為,今、明年台灣景氣不會太好,1∼2年房價下跌機率大,且在政策主導下「房價不跌、調控不停」;但也有業者大膽預言,預估房市在2017年底至2018年落底,未來房市將是「溫和當中結束末升段行情」。

行政院陸委會特任副主委表示,國內連續4個月出口負成長,預估今年經濟成長率3.2%,低於去年的3.7%,今、明年台灣景氣不會太好,1∼2年房價下跌機率大;但因所得分配惡化,有錢人財富不受影響下,北市房市不會有太大問題,但房價上漲也不容易。

國內房市循環期已由早期的3∼5年拉長至10∼15年,國內房市供給量過多,且依照50年來房市上漲經驗來看,政府一定會干預,在政策主導下「房價不跌、調控不停」。

打豪宅是最笨的打房政策,因為豪宅資金最穩定,目前資金流至中南部及海外房地產市場,統計近18季以來,流出海外資金約5兆元。

房地合一政策只打到量,在房價看跌下,課不到資本利得稅,不過,因為目前投資客大多已洗出場,房市不會崩盤,都會精華低價產品仍相對抗跌,對首購與換屋者來說實在是白等了;預估2017年底、最慢2018年落底,未來房市將是「溫和當中結束末升段行情」,而休閒不動產將進入黃金10年。

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