2015-06-17
澳洲投行麥格理銀行預測:澳洲央行將在11月再度降息

澳洲麥格理銀行(Macquarie)的分析師周二(616)認為,澳洲聯儲今年將很可能再次降息,因為政府不太願意用財政政策來提振改革處疲軟的經濟。

該行認為,澳大利亞財政政策很可能會與貨幣政策起到相反的作用,如此狀況的關鍵在於澳洲聯邦政府選擇了這麼去做,而不是因為缺少財政寬鬆空間。然而分析師認為,儘管澳洲聯儲在11月再一次降息,會使澳元兌美元(0.7751, 0.0002, 0.03%)2016年中期下降到0.7的低位,但他們仍預計澳洲失業率將在2016年創下新高,而一旦如此,該國在2017年之前的經濟增速也將一直處於趨勢水平以下。

同時,聖喬治銀行指出,澳洲聯儲聯的會議紀要顯示,該國國內現階段的經濟發展前景依舊暗淡。此前62日的政策會議決議中,澳洲聯儲已表明將繼續推行寬鬆政策。不過,澳洲聯儲正在暗淡的國內經濟之中尋找一線曙光。它將繼續等待評估發展,這意味著在2015年剩餘的時間裡,澳洲聯儲將不會採取任何措施。

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